Hollyk (603898): Long-term strategic change under pressure for revenue growth is worth looking forward to

Hollyk (603898): Long-term strategic change under pressure for revenue growth is worth looking forward to

Event: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 15 from January to September.

6 ppm, a 10-year increase of 2.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

600 million, down 14 a year.

8%; net non-profit deductions decrease by 3 each year.


One single Q3 belongs to the mother profit 1.

1 billion, 10 from the previous decade.

5%, the decline has narrowed.

Comments: 1. Revenue growth is under pressure, and the proportion of new products has significantly increased single Q3 revenue6.

200 million, the growth rate is basically the same as last year, the chain continues to be continuous, the impact of real estate after the cycle gradually appears.

Specifically, the revenue of stores with an operating cycle of more than one year was basically flat, in which the unit price of customers increased by 5-10%, and the number of users decreased by 5-10%.

The increase is mainly from the retail side, and the revenue from in-process engineering orders is expected to be postponed.

In terms of products, the income structure has undergone a certain change, and the proportion of categories other than wardrobes (and supporting cabinets) has increased. Among them, the proportion of finished products storage and distribution is about 3.

5%, cabinets, wooden doors, doors and windows together account for about 7.

0%, more than 10% in total.

On the whole, the company has been actively promoting new products and new channels, and subsequent growth is expected to break the industry’s downward cycle.

2. The gross profit margin is stable. The decrease in government subsidies and changes in the three fee structure have led to pressure 武汉夜网论坛 on profits, and the cash flow has continued to stabilize.

2%, basically stable.

Although the proportion of new products is increasing rapidly (the lack of scale effects of early new products will reduce the overall gross profit margin), the company will better maintain the overall efficiency of new product lines by gradually upgrading wardrobe products, efficient management, and synergistically improving the overall efficiency of new product lines.The gross profit margin and overall profitability.

Net profit for the first three quarters of 16.

3%, at least -4pct, a slight decrease from the previous month, mainly due to the impact of reduced government subsidies and changes in the three fee structure, and the company’s subsequent focus on research and development capabilities.

It is expected that the proportion of the 重庆耍耍网 company’s mid-to-high-end products will continue to increase in the future, the scale of new categories will be significant, and the overall gross profit margin is expected to maintain a high level (the company also prefers stable gross profit margin).

Net cash flow from operating activities.

50 yuan, +2.

5%, the company is mainly a retail model, the cash flow is relatively benign and sustainable3, long-term strategic change is worth looking forward to, maintain the “strongly recommended-A” rating to face the downward trend of the industry, the company’s current main strategy is 1, the same store from channel managementTransform to retail management, make vigorous changes and upgrades in terms of traffic conversion, user thinking, retail mode, and store efficiency. The short-term goal is not to increase the same-store transaction volume, and the customer unit price has increased steadily. 2. Pass three new products at the same time.Class cultivation brings new growth drivers.

3. The launch of the assembly business, the landing of a new joint venture with Qijia and the rational development of engineering channels will also bring incremental business in the future.

Expected 2019?
The net profit attributable to mothers will be 3 in 2021.

500 million, 3.

800 million, 4.

30,000 yuan, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” level.

Risk warning: industry competition is intensifying, and real estate sales fall short of expectations.